Study Predicts 3 out of 4 Americans Will Be Overweight by 2015
By Hugh C. McBride
An evaluation of more than 30 years' worth of statistics has led researchers to predict that three-fourths of all American adults will be overweight or obese by the year 2015, with weight-related health care spending in the United States approaching $1 trillion by 2030 unless significant changes are made in the way we eat and exercise.
Under the direction of Youfa Wang, PhD, MD, experts at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine made these estimations based upon their analysis of nationally representative health surveys dating to the 1970s. Their study was published in the July 2008 edition of the research journal Obesity.
In the past 30 years, the U.S. obesity rate has risen from 13 percent to 32 percent, Wang noted in a release that accompanied publication of the study's findings. "If the rate of obesity and overweight continues at this pace, by 2015, 75 percent of adults and nearly 24 percent of U.S. children and adolescents will be overweight or obese," he said.
If this trend continues for the next three decades, Wang and his fellow researchers anticipate that related health care spending will exceed $956 billion.
"The health care costs attributable to obesity and overweight are expected to more than double every decade. This would account for 15 to 17 percent of total health care costs spent," Wang said. "Due to the assumptions we made and the limitations of the available data, these figures are likely an underestimation of the true financial impact."
Adults who have a body mass index (BMI) between 25 and 29.9 are considered to be overweight, while those with a BMI of 30 or higher are classified as obese.
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